The future relationship of the southern nation with the IMF will be one of the main topics of debate in the run-up to the presidential election. Author: Reuters
The Argentine nation faces the most difficult and defining elections of this century after the 2003 elections, in the midst of a neoliberal catastrophe, brought victory to Néstor Kirchner and marked a turning point for rebirth.
Although the consistent mandate of Peronism and its attachment to the people has now averted a social catastrophe similar to that which then caused the actual popular uprising that toppled the president (Fernando de la Rua, 2001), the truth is that Argentina is going to these elections are engulfed in the consequences an equally suffocating external debt and lion’s terms of rescheduling payments with the International Monetary Fund, which, by reducing requirements, extended the terms but retained ties. Did he just delay their release?
That is why the renegotiations with the Fund, which were hastily carried out at the beginning of the mandate to be able to manage in the face of the pressure that the expiration of each payment term has meant until today, have drawn criticism in the sectors of the executive branch. in itself, manifestations in the popular spectrum and impact on the standard of living of the population, which could not be stopped by the social measures implemented by the outgoing government of Alberto Fernandez.
And this is without taking into account other factors such as the drought that led to a drop in agricultural production this year, and external factors unrelated to any indicators that have hit or are still hitting the planet: the COVID-19 scourge, the consequences of the conflict in Ukraine and the intensifying global financial and economic turmoil, among them.
The president kept his word during the election campaign not to pay at the expense of the people, for which they resorted to constant postponement of payments and their postponement. But the debt to the Foundation – as always – was a noose around his neck and, of course, around the neck of citizens.
Its effects are felt in everyday life. In the end, despite all efforts, the well-being of citizens pays for the debts assumed by Mauricio Macri, who once again tied the country when the IMF, transgressing its own commandments, provided him with an unprecedented loan. , to $54 billion, of which just over $45 billion was received, as the Frente de Todos (FdT) ordered him to stop when he arrived at Casa Rosada and did not accept a penny. But what was due was already enough to signify a heavy burden. The damage is big! – was applied.
Although monthly inflation fell to 7.8% in May – this is one of the requirements – the growth compared to last year still reaches 114%. According to INDEC
(National Institute for Statistics and Censuses), the largest increase was recorded this month in basic services such as housing, water, electricity and “other fuels.” This is the result of higher tariffs for electricity and gas, a commitment imposed by the IMF, which, among its conditions, forced the government to cut subsidies for these services. How to flip a ferris wheel!
However, in the report of the 1st. In April, after the fourth revision of the framework agreement between the two, the Monetary Fund, with a judge’s tone, said that “achieving the core budget deficit target of 1.9 percent of GDP for 2023 is still necessary to support disinflation and inflation.” reserves, reduce financial hardship and improve debt sustainability.
After a meeting with the economy minister, the institution pushed that same month to force the executive to speed up subsidy cuts, which the government decided to apply to higher-income sectors to protect those with less, among other things. measure things. It shows who dictates economic policy after the IMF loan.
At the end of 2022, Argentina accumulated a total debt of $276,000,000,000,000, also according to INDEC, of which $45,707,000,000,000 corresponded to a loan taken by Macri to the Fund, and $66,005,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 000 000,000,000 were debt securities in the hands of private creditors, among other creditors.
political council
Peronism – that is, the most weighty and transcendent progressive force in Argentina – goes for this reason to the presidential elections next October.
with the disadvantage of a legacy crisis that made the operation of his own government perilous.
This announces in advance the possibility of a punitive vote, against which only conscience can be raised, to evaluate which of the registered candidates will represent the best project, and to understand the dangerous crossroads of taking a step back if again betting on the right. .
But this may not be the only difficulty. In addition to the aforementioned circumstances, popular forces identified with what came to be called “Kirchnerism” – systematizing the course of action of Nestor and then Christina as a political movement – will not see on the ballots the name of the person they welcomed as their candidate.
She, Cristina Fernandez, twice president and current vice president, was subjected to politico-judicial persecution a few years ago, materialized in various “justice” cases, demonized by the political and media right to such an extent that she became the object of an assassination attempt, He refused three times from his candidacy.
At least three of the rigged trials that were launched against her were dropped for lack of evidence, but one went as far as a judge’s decision, and while the case remains at the defense stage, Fernández de Kirchner has already been sentenced to six years in prison. and life imprisonment for public office, a sentence that will depend on the outcome of the trial.
With her participation, let’s say, as a mentor to broad circles within the FDT, thanks to her undisputed leadership there and among the people, this coalition seems to have already chosen by consensus to preserve the unity of their candidate in the current minister. Economics, Sergio Massa.
For now, it seems settled that the alliance will finally withdraw from the August primaries to confirm the choice of its candidate, as another party within the conglomerate favored participation in PASO (primary, open, simultaneous and mandatory elections).
In addition, patio analysts also pointed to the fact that the candidate was chosen relatively shortly before the presidential election, a period that would not have been enough to form a leader.
Once again about the importance of an electorate sympathetic to progressivism – say, a majority represented in ordinary Argentines – not to be fooled by the songs of sirens or vote for a face or overloaded with the harsh reality in which they have lived these four years, but because of the fairness of a program that can return the country to rails.
In a pre-election situation
Knowing – how could he not know – what the people are suffering from, Massa this week announced his desire to cut off relations with the Fund and assured that a potential government led by him should have foreign debt cancellation as a priority. to never again depend on the IMF.
His words do not seem to be simple proselytism, but a conviction expressed by the general population, the ruling circles and sections of the opposition. To insulate Argentina from other moves, such as the one that brought the country back into the clutches of the IMF after Kirchner’s successful renegotiation and debt repayment in 2006, Congress approved a law in 2021 making foreign currency borrowing subject to foreign law, and with expansion of jurisdiction would require the approval of the legislature. Future agreements with the Fund also need to be approved by Parliament.
The performance of other candidates around this aspect can be decisive. Among those applicants who will leave the primaries and who have yet to go through official registration, the places will be taken by the right-wing alliance duo led by Macri, Juntos por el Cambio; party La Libertad Avanza (LLA), probably with liberal economist Javier Milei, who is called
outsider a populist who preaches ultra-conservative formulas; and the lesser known Front of the Left and Workers’ Unity (FIT-U).
There is little time left. Let’s hope.
Source: Juventud Rebelde