The failure of President Lasso’s leadership complicates the socio-political scenario of the Ecuadorian nation. Author: EFE

Political instability is still a sign in Ecuador. With the exception of ten years of the Civil Revolution, it is the Latin American nation that has the most outstanding mandates in recent decades, along with Peru.

Guillermo Lasso avoided another dismissal, although his term will not end either.

After the dissolution of the National Assembly, which will lead to early elections, the country waits for this moment, while neighboring Peru wanders aimlessly between the rejection of President Dina Boluarte and the condemnation of the atrocities with which she repressed those who demand a new constitution after Pedro Castillo, a rural teacher , who was elected president by popular vote, was ousted by the legislature and placed in the preventive detention he is still in, in a decision similar to that taken by Lasso in Ecuador.

It is true that the closure of the Congress is provided for in the Magna Carta of Ecuador under three conditions, among which is one that the president used to indicate the closure of the National Assembly: internal unrest, he said, although this does not exist. scenario in the country, according to their detractors, so various political forces rejected this argument, ultimately upheld by the Constitutional Court.

However, in Peru, despite also being included in the Magna Carta, the same measure, promulgated only by Castillo on the day of his demotion, was the justification expected by the right-wing Congress to accuse him of being a coup plotter, and get out of the way for the president, who was torpedoing all the time.

Fortunately, there has been a lull in Ecuador after the sensible and expected move by the President, who was subjected to political trial in the Assembly, which could have removed him from power on charges of corruption.

Parliament took aim at him, but he drew his holster and fired before being shot. Opinions can now be divided between those who believe that the move will benefit the opposition, which has a strong chance of winning a presidential election two years before elections originally scheduled for 2025, and those who believe that the grace period granted to the president for the adoption of decrees before this election, which he himself decided to promote by striking the Assembly, may be a period of time for him to recover.

However, Guillermo Lasso reiterated that he would not run. It would be foolish to do so, not only because, depending on how the elected legislature is integrated, the court that now his play known as “the death of the cross” can be revived has ceased.

In addition, Lasso has been experiencing a severe loss of popularity for several months, as evidenced by the failure in February of a constitutional reform that put eight questions to a referendum, none of which was approved. At the time, polls gave him an approval rating of just 13 percent.

Now, the polls didn’t ask about its adoption, but the most recent published study, conducted by the firm ClickResearch in five cities in March, showed that 81.84% of those polled considered the situation in the country to be bad, and only 38.6% Bet that the head of state complete his mandate. The remaining 61.31 percent were in favor of his departure, either through his dismissal by court order, or through resignation, or through the “cross death”, which he eventually accepted.

These sentiments may explain the relative calm of citizens with which the dissolution of parliament and early elections were received.

In fact, the holding of snap elections was one of the flags of various political forces when the failure of the constitutional reform was confirmed.

However, this peace of mind could be undermined if, before August, the date set by the electoral authority for the establishment of polling stations, Lasso attempts to impose anti-popular measures using the authority that was intended to govern decrees that only require the permission of the Constitutional Court.

The mighty Confederation of Indigenous Peoples (Konaye), which has clearly demonstrated its mobilization power and strength in overthrowing governments – in 2000, the public forces on June 3 to agree on the actions to be taken.

It is feared by the imposition of laws hitherto rejected by the circle of popular and allied organizations and held up in the Assembly by virtue of the majority that the Progressives had in the Chamber.

It was a relationship of presidential-legislative bargaining that could be reminiscent of Castillo’s relationship with the right-wing Congress of Peru, except that while in Lima the parliament played dirty games and even prevented the ex-president from creating a cabinet. his choice to bind him. Through political blackmail in Quito, the National Assembly fought in accordance with the powers granted to preserve the national wealth and a better life for the citizens.

In Peru, legislatures have tried to keep the neoliberal system safe and protect what they call fujimorism; In Ecuador, members of the assembly tried to prevent the further spread of neoliberalism.

Lasso’s work justifies the precautions of those who view this period with suspicion. In these few days, the President has already passed in the hands of the court tax reform and the law on investment incentives and free zones, which analysts consider a panacea for bankers and an opportunity for money laundering.

But stoking social tensions will jeopardize the August elections, and at this stage it may not benefit anyone. According to experts, in addition, the new National Assembly can repeal existing laws.

Election race continues

One could almost speak of enthusiasm for the elections, if we take into account the mood with which various forces begin to shuffle their candidates.

The advancement of the meeting with the polls represents an important opportunity for Progressivism, which, although divided, has splendid representation in the Civil Revolution, a movement which unifies what has been called the correísmo and which emerged as the first political force in a group movement. elections held in February along with a referendum. Thus, their candidates received the main cities, despite the ban previously placed against them by former President Lenin Moreno, in the style of the best exercise. justice who supports the unfair penalty against Rafael Correa, forced to stay on the sidelines.

It was only before this election contest that his followers managed to register as an independent political movement, which they were not given in the 2021 presidential election, so Andres Araus, his young candidate, had to enter this fight, which was welcomed by the Union. for Hope (Unes), an alliance founded in the company of other progressive forces. So did his ambitious legislators.

Despite this, the Revolución Ciudadana showed in February not only widespread trust and sympathy, but also a strong organization, attributes that it should show again in August, although it is not known whether it will act alone or in the context of you. unite

Its triumph will allow Ecuador to materialize the changes seen in other Latin American countries since the right-wing restorative neo-liberalism that it suffered a few years ago.

This move has yet to announce if Arauz will be repeated, though other sheds are already considering contenders who observers believe could reach 16.

The performance to be taken into account will be the indigenous movement that has so far manifested itself in the Pachacutiq Party. Yaku Pérez, his candidate in 2021, when he came third and who called for no vote in the second round of the tie-break between Arauz and Lasso, will run as a candidate from an alliance of other parties and social movements, while Konaye has just been appointed candidate for the post of its leader, Leonidas Iza.

It would be unfortunate if this old lack of consensus between the indigenous movement and the correísmo would reopen space for the right in an electoral landscape fragmented by the number of candidates expected to appear on the ballot and where outside candidates who want to appropriate the progressive tide .

Source: Juventud Rebelde